The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US petroleum and other liquid fuels production – which in addition to crude oil and condensate production includes natural gas plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries – is to grow from 14.8 million barrels/day (b/d) in 2015 to 18.6 million b/d in 2040 in its Annual Energy Outlook 2016.
Differences in crude oil from tight formations (tight oil) and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) account for most of the differences in production across these cases.